Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Alexander Shevchenko

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.48	2.6
	1.43	2.85	Watch
	1.48	2.93
	1.41	2.8	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.42	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.6)	2.83 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
66.3%

Alexander Shevchenko
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Camilo Ugo Carabelli's performance.

Alexander Shevchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexander Shevchenko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Camilo Ugo Carabelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Shevchenko than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexander Shevchenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92%	0%	8%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alexander Shevchenko Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Ugo Carabelli (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 61. Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 85.

Ugo Carabelli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Shevchenko has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ugo Carabelli could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.44%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.56%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
04.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLWL
- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Yibing Wu	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Dan Added	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Jaume Munar - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Diego Dedura-Palomero	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Marin Cilic - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWLLL

Upcoming Matches