Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Gael Monfils

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.52	2.55
	1.56	2.6
	1.52	2.53	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.56	2.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.63)	2.57 ↑ (2.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
62.6%

Gael Monfils
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.6%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Gael Monfils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Camilo Ugo Carabelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gael Monfils than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gael Monfils could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Monfils will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 57. Monfils is ranked ATP: 200.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ugo Carabelli could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 59.55%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
04.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLWW
- Gael Monfils
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Gael Monfils - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Gael Monfils - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Gael Monfils - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Gael Monfils - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Valentin Vacherot - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWL

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide