Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.41
	2.97	1.46
	2.85	1.42	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.96	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↓ (3)	1.43 ↑ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
33%

Flavio Cobolli
67%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

68.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

69%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Flavio Cobolli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Flavio Cobolli will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 57. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 13.

Ugo Carabelli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cobolli is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cobolli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cobolli might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Cobolli will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
04.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWLW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Munich
19.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWWW

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide