Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.14	5.5	Watch
	1.16	5.00
	1.14	5.1	Watch
	1.15	5.1	Watch
	1.16	5.55
	1.14	5.84	Watch
	1.12	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.17)	5.37 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
82.4%

Alex Michelsen
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Alcaraz Garfia (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3., and Michelsen is ranked ATP: 34..

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Alcaraz Garfia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia enters as the overwhelming favorite.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
26.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Yibing Wu - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 ?WLWW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Alex Michelsen - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Alex Michelsen - Daniel Merida Aguilar	3:0 ✺
02.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWWW

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