Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Yibing Wu		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	11	1.05	Watch
	9.25	1.05
	8.8	1.05
	12.64	1.06
	11.14	1.04	Watch
	11	1.04
	9.47	1.06	Watch
	9	1.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.29 ↑ (5.95)	1.05 ↓ (1.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 32.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yibing Wu
9.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
90.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

84%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yibing Wu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yibing Wu's form might have worsened.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlos Alcaraz Garfia's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Yibing Wu - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Wu will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Wu is ranked ATP: 113. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3.

Recent performances by Wu have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Wu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Wu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yibing Wu
ATP US Open
02.09.26	James Duckworth - Yibing Wu	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Yibing Wu - Adam Walton	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Francisco Comesana - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.08.26	Otto Virtanen - Yibing Wu	Canceled ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.26	Jaime Faria - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWL?L
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Jaime Faria - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WW?WL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
06.10.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yibing Wu	2:0

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