Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	1.11	6.5	Watch
	1.12	6.00	Watch
	1.11	6.2	Watch
	1.11	6.9	Watch
	1.1	7.4
	1.12	6.54	Watch
	1.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↑ (1.07)	6.51 ↓ (7.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
85.4%

Denis Shapovalov
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

87.1%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3., and Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 46..

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Shapovalov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia enters as the overwhelming favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Alcaraz Garfia has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:0 (averaging 2.5:0 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.07 are the expected chance of winning is 87.06%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
01.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
26.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WW?WL
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Denis Shapovalov - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
28.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Vit Kopriva - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Denis Shapovalov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Denis Shapovalov	3:0

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