Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - Final

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Jiri Lehecka

	1	2
	1.29	3.75	Watch
	1.26	3.90
	1.25	4.00	Watch
	1.27	3.81	Watch
	1.24	4.30
	1.29	3.74	Watch
	1.26	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↑ (1.22)	3.9 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
75.5%

Jiri Lehecka
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.7%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Jiri Lehecka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jiri Lehecka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3., and Lehecka is ranked ATP: 19..

Both players arrive in flying form having triumphed in their latest fixtures.

Alcaraz Garfia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Alcaraz Garfia is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Alcaraz Garfia has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 8:3 (averaging 2:0.8 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Tokyo
05.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
02.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
01.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 W?WW?
- Jiri Lehecka
ATP Tokyo
05.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Ugo Humbert - Jiri Lehecka	1:2 ✺
01.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Zizou Bergs	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
19.09.26	Jiri Lehecka - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
02.09.25	Jiri Lehecka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP London
22.06.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jiri Lehecka	2:1
ATP Doha
20.02.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jiri Lehecka	1:2
ATP London
22.06.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jiri Lehecka	2:0

Upcoming Matches