Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Sebastian Korda

	1	2
	1.11	6.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.12	6.25	Watch
	1.13	7.16
	1.12	6.25	Watch
	1.13	6	Watch
	1.12	6.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↑ (1.08)	6.45 ↓ (6.83)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
85.2%

Sebastian Korda
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

86.3%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Korda Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Korda will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 73.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Korda is ranked ATP: 36.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Korda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:2. (average 2.4:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWWW
- Sebastian Korda
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Sebastian Korda - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Sebastian Korda - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
24.02.26	Sebastian Korda - Mattia Bellucci	Canceled ✺
ATP Delray Beach
22.02.26	Tommy Paul - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
31.05.24	Sebastian Korda - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP London
24.06.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Korda	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.22	Sebastian Korda - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.22	Sebastian Korda - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1
ATP Next Gen Finals
13.11.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Korda	3:0

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