Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Cameron Norrie

	1	2
	1.05	11	Watch
	1.04	11
	1.05	15.77
	1.03	13.6	Watch
	1.05	10	Watch
	1.04	15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 (1.04)	12.73 ↑ (11.17)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
92.4%

Cameron Norrie
7.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.5%

8.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Cameron Norrie has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Norrie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Norrie (3.78) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Norrie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Norrie is ranked ATP: 29.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 2.

Alcaraz Garfia is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Norrie has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.04 are the expected chance of winning is 91.48%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
21.02.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Fils	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWW
- Cameron Norrie
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.26	Rinky Hijikata - Cameron Norrie	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Cameron Norrie - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Cameron Norrie - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
24.02.26	Rafael Jodar - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
11.02.26	Christopher OConnell - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
28.10.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	1:2
ATP Wimbledon
08.07.25	Cameron Norrie - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP Rio de Janeiro
26.02.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	1:2
ATP Buenos Aires
19.02.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	2:0
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.22	Cameron Norrie - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1
ATP Madrid
05.05.22	Cameron Norrie - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2
ATP Indian Wells
17.03.22	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	2:0

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