Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Movistar Plus+


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.18	5
	1.19	5.35
	1.19	4.92	Watch
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.21	4.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 (1.19)	5.03 ↑ (4.54)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
80.9%

Daniil Medvedev
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.2%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Medvedev will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Medvedev (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Medvedev (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Medvedev (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Medvedev (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 11.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 4.

Both players have triumphed in their latest matches.

Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
21.02.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Fils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWW
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.26	Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
11.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
28.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tallon Griekspoor	Medvedev D. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
01.10.24	Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
12.07.24	Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3
ATP Indian Wells
17.03.24	Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP World Tour Finals
17.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP US Open
08.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	1:3
ATP Wimbledon
14.07.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	3:0
ATP Indian Wells
19.03.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	2:0

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