Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - Final

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Carlos Taberner		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.92	1.46
	2.70	1.48	Watch
			Watch
	2.77	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.93)	1.44 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Taberner
33.8%

Luciano Darderi
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Taberner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Taberner than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	0%	58.3%

Carlos Taberner - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Taberner will win (votes: 10 - 41.7%). Darderi will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 38.6% – 78%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Taberner (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Darderi (votes: 6 - 46.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3.5 Games - Darderi (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Taberner (1.65) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Taberner (votes: 8 - 50%). Darderi (votes: 8 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Taberner is ranked ATP: 111. Darderi is ranked ATP: 46.

Taberner is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Darderi is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Taberner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Darderi is considered a favorite.

We predict that Darderi will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 67.51%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Taberner
ATP Umag
25.07.25	Carlos Taberner - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Carlos Taberner - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Carlos Taberner	1:2 ✺
21.07.25	Carlos Taberner - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
ATP Gstaad
15.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Carlos Taberner	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Umag
25.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Dino Prizmic - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Chun Hsin Tseng - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
20.07.25	Luciano Darderi - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW

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