Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 25 July 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	3.35	1.37
	3.35	1.33	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.39	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.57)	1.35 ↓ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
29.3%

Luciano Darderi
70.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luciano Darderi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.3%	0%	73.7%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Darderi will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Darderi (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 3 - 60%). Darderi (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 51. Darderi is ranked ATP: 46.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 1.

Ugo Carabelli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Darderi is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Darderi is a strong favorite.

We predict that Darderi will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 64.41%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Umag
24.07.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Llamas Ruiz P. retired ✺
22.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 ?WLWW
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Umag
24.07.25	Dino Prizmic - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Chun Hsin Tseng - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
20.07.25	Luciano Darderi - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
18.07.25	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.05.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	0:2
02.05.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	0:2
09.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0
02.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2
11.10.22	Luciano Darderi - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
09.11.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	2:1
ITF Tournaments
30.03.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	2:0

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