Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Francisco Cerundolo		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.46	2.7
	1.51	2.84
	1.45	2.76	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.49	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.49)	2.72 ↑ (2.59)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
64.8%

Luciano Darderi
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	0%	17.4%

Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Cerundolo (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.12% – 98.1%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 20. Darderi is ranked ATP: 22.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerundolo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cerundolo might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerundolo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
17.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
16.04.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
13.04.26	Sumit Nagal - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
13.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Francisco Cerundolo	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWW?
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
ATP Marrakech
04.04.26	Luciano Darderi - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Buenos Aires
15.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	1:2
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:1
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.25	Luciano Darderi - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2
ATP Houston
03.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1

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