Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - Final

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Luciano Darderi		Jesper De Jong

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.53	2.45	Watch
	1.51	2.5	Watch
	1.6	2.5
	1.58	2.41	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.54	2.49	Watch
	1.63	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.63)	2.47 ↑ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
61.4%

Jesper De Jong
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Jesper De Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Luciano Darderi - Jesper De Jong Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Darderi will win (votes: 6 - 75%). De Jong will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 2 - 40%). De Jong (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Darderi (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 3 - 50%). De Jong (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 55. De Jong is ranked ATP: 106.

Now, both players are in good form.

Darderi could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 58.42%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
18.07.25	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
16.07.25	Elias Ymer - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
14.07.25	Raphael Collignon - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.25	Luciano Darderi - Jordan Thompson	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWL
- Jesper De Jong
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Jesper De Jong - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Vit Kopriva - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
14.07.25	William Rejchtman Vinciguerra - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Jesper De Jong	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWL

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