Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hugo Gaston		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.43	1.53	Watch
	2.54	1.57
	2.43	1.55	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.49	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.2)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
38.7%

Shintaro Mochizuki
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Hugo Gaston - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 2 - 40%). Mochizuki (votes: 3 - 60%).

Users Predictions: Shintaro Mochizuki will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 123. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 112.

Gaston is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mochizuki is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gaston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mochizuki might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Mochizuki will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gaston won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 43.15%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.85%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Winston-Salem
18.08.25	Hugo Gaston - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Hugo Gaston - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
28.07.25	Mattia Bellucci - Hugo Gaston	Bellucci M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLL?
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:1 ✺
19.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Filip Misolic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
24.06.24	Hugo Gaston - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0
22.06.21	Hugo Gaston - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2

Hugo Gaston - Shintaro Mochizuki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide