Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo (Japan), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday


	Christopher OConnell		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.5	1.51	Watch
	2.58	1.56
	2.55	1.54	Watch
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.52	1.53	Watch
	2.5	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (3.08)	1.53 ↑ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christopher OConnell
37.8%

Alex Michelsen
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christopher OConnell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christopher OConnell's performance.

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Michelsen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christopher OConnell than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christopher OConnell that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Christopher OConnell - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. OConnell will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Michelsen will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michelsen: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

OConnell is ranked ATP: 79. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 49.

Now both players are in good shape.

OConnell could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Michelsen will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Michelsen to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christopher OConnell
ATP Tokyo
26.09.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Taro Daniel - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Otto Virtanen - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
21.09.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Christopher OConnell	2:1 ✺
19.09.24	Pavel Kotov - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Tokyo
25.09.24	Alex Michelsen - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
23.09.24	Alex Michelsen - Borna Coric	2:0 ✺
23.09.24	Alex Michelsen - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
29.08.24	Jannik Sinner - Alex Michelsen	3:0 ✺
27.08.24	Eliot Spizzirri - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWLW

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