Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)


	Colton Smith		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	1.40	2.75
	1.42	2.70
	1.41	2.85
	1.44	2.90
	1.41	2.72	Watch
	1.40	2.85
	1.48	2.68	Watch
	1.40	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.53)	2.78 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
66.2%

Andrea Pellegrino
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colton Smith's performance.

Andrea Pellegrino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Pellegrino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Colton Smith - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Pellegrino will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 221. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 129.

Smith is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pellegrino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Smith could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Pellegrino - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.93%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
12.08.26	Colton Smith - Felix Gill	1:2 ✺
04.08.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
ATP Los Cabos
26.07.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	Colton Smith - Jeffrey John Wolf	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Colton Smith - Bu Yunchaokete	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Zizou Bergs - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Nishesh Basavareddy	2:1 ✺
30.07.26	Thiago Monteiro - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
19.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWL

Colton Smith - Andrea Pellegrino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide