Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: San Marino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday


	Carlo Alberto Caniato		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	3.00	1.36	Watch
	2.95	1.35
	3.15	1.33
	3.27	1.38
	2.84	1.37	Watch
	3.15	1.36
	3.25	1.30	Watch
	2.95	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.61)	1.35 ↓ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato
30.5%

Andrea Pellegrino
69.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlo Alberto Caniato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlo Alberto Caniato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Andrea Pellegrino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Carlo Alberto Caniato - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pellegrino will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pellegrino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Caniato is ranked ATP: 391. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 138.

Caniato is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pellegrino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Caniato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ATP Challenger
14.07.26	Maxim Mrva - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:1 ✺
07.07.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Hugo Dellien	0:2 ✺
02.07.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
30.06.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Izan Almazan Valiente	2:0 ✺
16.06.26	Marco Cecchinato - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Estoril
19.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Joao Dinis Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
14.07.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Raul Brancaccio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL

Carlo Alberto Caniato - Andrea Pellegrino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide