Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham, grass - Semi-finals

Date: 20 June 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nottingham 🌤️ ... 🟢 Grass


	Colton Smith		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.71	2.22
			Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.69	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.56)	2.15 ↓ (2.22)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
56.5%

Shintaro Mochizuki
43.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Colton Smith - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shintaro Mochizuki will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 146. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 164.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Smith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Smith might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Smith won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.27%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
19.06.25	Colton Smith - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
18.06.25	James McCabe - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
15.06.25	Colton Smith - James Kent Trotter	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Colton Smith - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
19.06.25	Jaime Faria - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
18.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
16.06.25	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
14.06.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
13.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Oliver Crawford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Colton Smith	2:1
05.08.24	Shintaro Mochizuki - Colton Smith	0:2

Colton Smith - Shintaro Mochizuki