Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Dane Sweeny		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.90	1.80
	1.92	1.84	Watch
	1.89	1.8	Watch
	1.92	1.90
	1.86	1.82	Watch
	1.88	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2)	1.83 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dane Sweeny
49.3%

Bernard Tomic
50.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dane Sweeny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dane Sweeny that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bernard Tomic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Dane Sweeny - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sweeny will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tomic will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sweeny is ranked ATP: 112., and Tomic is ranked ATP: 185..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Sweeny could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Sweeny has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dane Sweeny
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Kimmer Coppejans	0:2 ✺
05.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Omar Jasika - Dane Sweeny	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLWW
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Shanghai
08.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
06.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Terence Atmane - Bernard Tomic	Atmane T. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Mattia Bellucci	Bellucci M. win ✺
01.10.26	Yuta Shimizu - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LW??W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Dane Sweeny	1:2
15.06.23	Dane Sweeny - Bernard Tomic	0:2

Dane Sweeny - Bernard Tomic