Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday


	Bernard Tomic		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.75	1.45	Watch
	2.67	1.45	Watch
	3	1.41
	2.78	1.46	Watch
	2.65	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.51)	1.44 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bernard Tomic
34.3%

Matteo Arnaldi
65.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Bernard Tomic - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tomic will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tomic is ranked ATP: 185., and Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 38..

Tomic has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Arnaldi has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Arnaldi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Arnaldi holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bernard Tomic
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Terence Atmane - Bernard Tomic	Atmane T. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Mattia Bellucci	Bellucci M. win ✺
01.10.26	Yuta Shimizu - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 W??WW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Matteo Arnaldi - James Duckworth	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Martin Landaluce - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLL

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