Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Elmer Moller

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.88	1.83
	1.87	1.85	Watch
	1.74	1.95	Watch
	1.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.27)	1.97 ↑ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
52.8%

Elmer Moller
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Elmer Moller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elmer Moller might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elmer Moller could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Elmer Moller Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Moller will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 170. Moller is ranked ATP: 147.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Moller will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
28.11.25	Jan Choinski - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Gabriele Piraino	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alberto Garcia Garcia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWLW
- Elmer Moller
ATP Challenger
28.11.25	Elmer Moller - Carlos Lopez Montagud	2:0 ✺
27.11.25	Elmer Moller - Daniel Michalski	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Elmer Moller - Pedro Araujo	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Zdenek Kolar - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
19.11.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLW

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