Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday


	Jan Choinski		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.58	2.24
	1.65	2.31
	1.48	2.51	Watch
			Watch
	1.58	2.23	Watch
	1.6	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.5)	2.32 ↓ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
59.6%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Jan Choinski - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 128. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 170.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Choinski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Choinski might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Choinski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.61%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
26.11.25	Jan Choinski - Frederico Ferreira Silva	2:1 ✺
24.11.25	Jan Choinski - Kilian Feldbausch	2:0 ✺
17.11.25	Marko Topo - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
10.11.25	Luka Pavlovic - Jan Choinski	Canceled ✺
ATP Metz
03.11.25	Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWL?L
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
27.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Gabriele Piraino	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alberto Garcia Garcia	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Michael Geerts	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.11.22	Jan Choinski - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0

Jan Choinski - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide