Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Daniil Medvedev		Arthur Rinderknech

	1	2
	1.33	3.40	Watch
	1.30	3.40
	1.33	3.35
	1.36	3.64
	1.37	3.23	Watch
	1.31	3.60
	1.36	3.23	Watch
	1.35	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.3)	3.38 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
71.6%

Arthur Rinderknech
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Arthur Rinderknech has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Medvedev (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 8. Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 29.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Rinderknech may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 72.8%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Arthur Rinderknech - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.2%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Gorzny	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Hugo Gaston	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWLLW
- Arthur Rinderknech
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Jaume Munar - Arthur Rinderknech	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Arthur Rinderknech	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
08.08.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Arthur Rinderknech	Tiafoe F. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
11.10.25	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	1:2
ATP US Open
31.08.22	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	3:0

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