Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday


	Andrey Rublev		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.40	2.90
	1.42	2.8	Watch
	1.44	3.06
	1.42	2.88	Watch
	1.43	2.9
	1.46	2.78	Watch
	1.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.47)	2.86 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
66.7%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: Andrey Rublev will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 18. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 72.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Rublev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rublev is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 64.82%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
ATP Estoril
24.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
23.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
ATP Bastad
19.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
18.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Tomas Machac - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Valentin Royer	1:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
23.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
27.09.24	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
ATP Hamburg
27.07.19	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
Abu Dhabi Exhibition
29.12.17	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Andrey Rublev	0:2
ATP Miami
26.03.15	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1

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