Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday


	Daniil Medvedev		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.44	2.80
	1.44	2.8
	1.45	2.85	Watch
	1.45	2.85
	1.47	2.88	Watch
	1.45	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.48)	2.83 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
66.1%

Tommy Paul
33.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.9%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.3%	0%	8.7%

Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3 Games - Paul (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Games O/U 22.5 - over (1.91) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 50%). Paul (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 5., and Paul is ranked ATP: 17..

Medvedev is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Paul have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Paul could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Medvedev holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Medvedev has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 9:4 (averaging 1.8:0.8 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 63.9%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Shanghai
14.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Beijing
05.10.26	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	Djokovic N. Awarded ✺
04.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWW?W
- Tommy Paul
ATP Shanghai
14.10.26	Tommy Paul - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Tommy Paul - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
29.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Roma
14.05.24	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
16.03.24	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	1:2
ATP Beijing
29.09.23	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.21	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	1:3

Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide