Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Tommy Paul		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.60	2.30
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.58	2.45	Watch
	1.61	2.4
	1.69	2.21	Watch
	1.6	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.63)	2.31 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
58.7%

Valentin Vacherot
41.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Valentin Vacherot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Tommy Paul - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 17., and Vacherot is ranked ATP: 14..

In recent outings, Paul has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vacherot is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Paul could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 58.11%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Valentin Vacherot - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.89%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
29.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Dino Prizmic - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLWW
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
05.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Arthur Fils	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alexander Blockx	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WLWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Tommy Paul - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	✺
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Novak Djokovic - Valentin Vacherot	✺
ATP Basel
31.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Taylor Harry Fritz	✺

Tommy Paul - Valentin Vacherot