Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Los Cabos, hard - Final

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Sports 2
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Germany	Sky Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Arthur Gea		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2.30	1.62	Watch
	2.30	1.62
	2.28	1.63	Watch
	2.41	1.67
	2.33	1.63	Watch
	2.35	1.63
	2.32	1.63	Watch
	2.25	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.35)	1.63 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Gea
41.3%

Denis Shapovalov
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

59.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Arthur Gea - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 1 - 50%). Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Denis Shapovalov will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gea is ranked ATP: 127. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 68.

Gea is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shapovalov is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Shapovalov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Shapovalov will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 59.64%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Gea
ATP Los Cabos
31.07.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
30.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Arthur Gea - Michael Zheng	2:1 ✺
28.07.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Arthur Gea	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWW?
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Los Cabos
01.08.26	Cameron Norrie - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
30.07.26	Denis Shapovalov - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Denis Shapovalov - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Denis Shapovalov - Rinky Hijikata	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWW?

Arthur Gea - Denis Shapovalov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide