Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 May 2025, Monday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	France TV Rolan Garros, Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
Usa	Max


	Denis Shapovalov		Pedro Martinez Portero

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.56	2.4
	1.46	2.75
	1.52	2.73
	1.47	2.62	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.47	2.71	Watch
	1.46	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.6)	2.65 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
64%

Pedro Martinez Portero
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Denis Shapovalov's performance.

Pedro Martinez Portero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pedro Martinez Portero might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Denis Shapovalov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pedro Martinez Portero than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pedro Martinez Portero could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Denis Shapovalov - Pedro Martinez Portero Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Martinez Portero will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 40%). Martinez Portero (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Martinez Portero (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Martinez Portero (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Martinez Portero (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 27. Martinez Portero is ranked ATP: 48.

Shapovalov is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Martinez Portero has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Martinez Portero may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Shapovalov is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shapovalov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Roma
09.05.25	Denis Shapovalov - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
15.04.25	Gael Monfils - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLW??
- Pedro Martinez Portero
ATP Hamburg
18.05.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
08.05.25	Mattia Bellucci - Pedro Martinez Portero	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Alexey Vatutin	0:2 ✺
30.04.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Aziz Dougaz	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
17.09.20	Pedro Martinez Portero - Denis Shapovalov	0:2

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