Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday


	Denis Shapovalov		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.41	2.95	Watch
	1.5	2.8
	1.49	2.58	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.45	2.77	Watch
	1.41	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.51)	2.78 ↑ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
65.7%

Vilius Gaubas
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Denis Shapovalov - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Gaubas will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaubas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Shapovalov (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Gaubas (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gaubas (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 28. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 154.

Recent form of Shapovalov has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gaubas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Shapovalov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shapovalov is considered a favorite.

We predict that Gaubas will win today's game, with odds of 2.9.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
15.04.25	Gael Monfils - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LW??L
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Roma
07.05.25	Vilius Gaubas - Damir Dzumhur	2:1 ✺
06.05.25	Hugo Dellien - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
05.05.25	Vilius Gaubas - Eliot Spizzirri	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.25	Christian Garin - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
29.04.25	Jakub Paul - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWLW

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