Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Monterrey, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday


	Diana Shnaider		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.44	1.54	Watch
	2.47	1.53
	2.29	1.61	Watch
	2.29	1.64	Watch
	1.78	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.78)	1.64 ↓ (1.97)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diana Shnaider
41.9%

Elise Mertens
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diana Shnaider has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Diana Shnaider's form might have worsened.

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elise Mertens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diana Shnaider than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Diana Shnaider, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elise Mertens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.1%	0%	38.9%

Diana Shnaider - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Shnaider will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Mertens will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shnaider: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Shnaider (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Mertens (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shnaider is ranked WTA: 22. Mertens is ranked WTA: 21.

Recent form of Shnaider has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mertens has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mertens may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Shnaider won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Diana Shnaider
WTA Monterrey
20.08.25	Diana Shnaider - Kamilla Rakhimova	2:0 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
09.08.25	Yue Yuan - Diana Shnaider	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Victoria Mboko - Diana Shnaider	Canceled ✺
WTA Montreal
29.07.25	Marie Bouzkova - Diana Shnaider	2:0 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
02.07.25	Diana Shnaider - Diane Parry	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WL?LL
- Elise Mertens
WTA Monterrey
20.08.25	Donna Vekic - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
18.08.25	Anna Blinkova - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
11.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Clervie Ngounoue - Elise Mertens	1:2 ✺
WTA Montreal
30.07.25	Elise Mertens - Anna Kalinskaya	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Roma
12.05.25	Diana Shnaider - Elise Mertens	2:0
WTA Stuttgart
16.04.25	Elise Mertens - Diana Shnaider	2:0
WTA Monterrey
28.02.23	Elise Mertens - Diana Shnaider	2:0

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