Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Elias Ymer		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.15	Watch
	1.66	2.09	Watch
	2.26	1.61	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.08	Watch
	1.67	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.67)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elias Ymer
53.4%

Nicolas Mejia
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Nicolas Mejia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Elias Ymer - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Ymer will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Mejia will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ymer: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Elias Ymer will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ymer is ranked ATP: 188. Mejia is ranked ATP: 179.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolas Mejia - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.3%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elias Ymer
ATP Acapulco
21.02.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
15.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
ATP Montpellier
01.02.26	Moise Kouame - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Elias Ymer - Alexander Shevchenko	1:3 ✺
14.01.26	Elias Ymer - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLLLW
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Acapulco
21.02.26	Bernard Tomic - Nicolas Mejia	Tomic B. retired ✺
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Nicolas Mejia	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
08.02.26	Reda Bennani - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Taha Baadi - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.01.26	Nicolas Mejia - Daniil Glinka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 ?LWWL

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