Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Bogota, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday


	Emiliana Arango		Lucrezia Stefanini

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.4
	1.55	2.41
	1.52	2.49	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.57	2.42	Watch
	1.55	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.74)	2.4 ↑ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emiliana Arango
60.6%

Lucrezia Stefanini
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emiliana Arango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emiliana Arango's performance.

Lucrezia Stefanini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucrezia Stefanini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emiliana Arango than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emiliana Arango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucrezia Stefanini than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucrezia Stefanini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Emiliana Arango - Lucrezia Stefanini Predictions

Users Predictions: Emiliana Arango will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arango is ranked WTA: 79. Stefanini is ranked WTA: 146.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Stefanini could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arango will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arango won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emiliana Arango
ATP Challenger
19.03.25	Emiliana Arango - Chloe Paquet	1:2 ✺
WTA Merida
02.03.25	Emma Navarro - Emiliana Arango	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Emiliana Arango - Daria Saville	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Emiliana Arango - Rebecca Sramkova	2:1 ✺
27.02.25	Emiliana Arango - Francesca Jones	Jones F. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLWW?
- Lucrezia Stefanini
ATP Challenger
24.03.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Tatjana Maria	0:2 ✺
WTA Miami
18.03.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Rebecca Sramkova	1:2 ✺
17.03.25	Ysaline Bonaventure - Lucrezia Stefanini	0:2 ✺
16.03.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Cristina Bucsa	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.03.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Louisa Chirico	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA US Open
20.08.24	Lucrezia Stefanini - Emiliana Arango	2:1
ATP Challenger
14.05.24	Emiliana Arango - Lucrezia Stefanini	2:0
WTA Cluj Napoca
04.02.24	Emiliana Arango - Lucrezia Stefanini	Stefanini L. retired
ITF Tournaments
17.09.22	Lucrezia Stefanini - Emiliana Arango	2:0
02.06.21	Emiliana Arango - Lucrezia Stefanini	2:1

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