Match Info

Date: 8 August 2022, Monday


	Federico Gaio		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.36
	2.8	1.42
	2.8	1.37
	3.1	1.38
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.96	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (2.91)	1.4 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Gaio
32.8%

Matteo Arnaldi
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Gaio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Gaio than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Federico Gaio - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaio is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gaio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arnaldi is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Gaio
ATP Challenger
18.07.22	Norbert Gombos - Federico Gaio	2:0 ✺
12.07.22	Mattia Bellucci - Federico Gaio	2:0 ✺
05.07.22	Matteo Gigante - Federico Gaio	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.22	Federico Gaio - Dennis Novak	0:2 ✺
20.06.22	Federico Gaio - Yuichi Sugita	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
05.08.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	0:2 ✺
03.08.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrea Collarini	2:0 ✺
01.08.22	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
29.07.22	Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
27.07.22	Gianmarco Ferrari - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW

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