Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday


	Francesco Maestrelli		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.68	1.51
	2.83	1.41	Watch
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.25)	1.48 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
36.6%

Mattia Bellucci
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Francesco Maestrelli - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Maestrelli will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Bellucci will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Maestrelli: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 1 - 50%). Bellucci (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 114. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 94.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Maestrelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bellucci could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Maestrelli won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.94%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Rinky Hijikata	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2 ✺
02.03.26	Nicolas Jarry - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Tom Gentzsch	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Sergio Callejon Hernando	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLW
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Sebastian Korda - Mattia Bellucci	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LLWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.05.24	Mattia Bellucci - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2
ITF Tournaments
13.05.22	Mattia Bellucci - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2

Francesco Maestrelli - Mattia Bellucci: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide