Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Miami 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Yosuke Watanuki		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
			Watch
	1.83	1.91
	2.08	1.67
	2.05	1.81
	2.05	1.74
	2	1.73
	2.02	1.69	Watch
	1.84	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.84)	1.78 ↓ (1.92)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
47.3%

Francesco Maestrelli
52.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.1%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Yosuke Watanuki - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Watanuki will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Maestrelli will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Watanuki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Watanuki is ranked ATP: 175. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 114.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Watanuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Watanuki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Tom Paris - Yosuke Watanuki	Canceled ✺
03.03.26	Ugo Blanchet - Yosuke Watanuki	Watanuki Y. retired ✺
02.03.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Florian Broska	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Jurij Rodionov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 ??WW?
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Rinky Hijikata	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2 ✺
02.03.26	Nicolas Jarry - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Tom Gentzsch	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.02.22	Yosuke Watanuki - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1

Yosuke Watanuki - Francesco Maestrelli