Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Australia	9Gem
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Finland	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Hungary	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Italy	Super Tennis
Peru	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Poland	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Sweden	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Turkey	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Francis Tiafoe		Ben Shelton

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.40	1.33
	3.29	1.32
	3.48	1.37
	3.46	1.33	Watch
	3.4	1.33
	3.55	1.36	Watch
	3.4	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.17)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
28.1%

Ben Shelton
71.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

68.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Ben Shelton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ben Shelton than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Francis Tiafoe - Ben Shelton Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 12 - 57.1%). Shelton will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 35.9% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Shelton (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12. Shelton is ranked ATP: 9.

Both players have triumphed in their latest matches.

In this match, Shelton is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Shelton will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW
- Ben Shelton
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Ben Shelton - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Ben Shelton - Denis Shapovalov	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Ben Shelton - Hubert Hurkacz	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Ben Shelton - Tallon Griekspoor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
25.07.25	Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP US Open
30.08.24	Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe	2:3
ATP Houston
07.04.24	Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP US Open
05.09.23	Francis Tiafoe - Ben Shelton	1:3

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