Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Francisco Cerundolo		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.18	1.67
	2.1	1.75	Watch
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.42)	1.73 ↑ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
45%

Andrey Rublev
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francisco Cerundolo's performance.

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrey Rublev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.1%	0%	67.9%

Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 9 - 32.1%). Rublev will win (votes: 19 - 67.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 50.6% – 85.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Andrey Rublev will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 21. Rublev is ranked ATP: 15.

Recent performances by Cerundolo have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rublev is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cerundolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Rublev will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cerundolo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.73%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Damir Dzumhur	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Zhizhen Zhang	3:0 ✺
ATP Adelaide
13.01.26	Jaume Munar - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
06.12.25	Francisco Cerundolo - David Goffin	3:0 ✺
06.12.25	Ugo Humbert - Francisco Cerundolo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Jaime Faria - Andrey Rublev	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:3 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
29.10.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Umag
26.07.24	Andrey Rublev - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2
ATP Bastad
22.07.23	Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev	1:2
ATP Hamburg
21.07.22	Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev	2:0

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