Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Kia Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	ESPN


	Matteo Arnaldi		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	4.33	1.22	Watch
	4.1	1.24	Watch
	4.41	1.21	Watch
	4	1.25
	4.18	1.24	Watch
	4.33	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.23 ↑ (3.96)	1.23 (1.23)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
22.5%

Andrey Rublev
77.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

76.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Sets - Rublev (2.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 36 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Andrey Rublev will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 20%). Rublev (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 61. Rublev is ranked ATP: 16.

Rublev is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Rublev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rublev is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.23 are the expected chance of winning is 76.3%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	Canceled ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rinky Hijikata	Hijikata R. walkover ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Paris
25.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Vienna
23.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ??WLL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
28.12.25	Flavio Cobolli - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
27.12.25	Valentin Vacherot - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ATP Montreal
11.08.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3
ATP Vienna
26.10.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:2

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