Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hong Kong, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Lorenzo Musetti		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.83	1.95	Watch
	1.68	2.18	Watch
	1.85	1.95
	1.88	1.96	Watch
	1.78	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.87)	2 ↑ (1.97)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
52.6%

Andrey Rublev
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Musetti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrey Rublev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	0%	84.2%

Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Andrey Rublev will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Andrey Rublev will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 7. Rublev is ranked ATP: 16.

Recent performances by Musetti have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rublev is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 51.3%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Hong Kong
09.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
11.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
10.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Hong Kong
09.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Andrey Rublev - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
28.12.25	Flavio Cobolli - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
27.12.25	Valentin Vacherot - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Andrey Rublev - Adrian Mannarino	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
30.06.23	Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Dubai
24.02.20	Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

Upcoming Matches