Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday


	Gael Monfils		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.85	1.42	Watch
	2.95	1.4
	3.31	1.38
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	3.02	1.39	Watch
	2.95	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.78)	1.41 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gael Monfils
32.3%

Andrey Rublev
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

68.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gael Monfils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gael Monfils than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	0%	43.5%

Gael Monfils - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Monfils will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Rublev will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monfils: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 Sets - Rublev (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Monfils (1.74) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +4 Games - Monfils (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gael Monfils will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Monfils (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rublev (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Monfils is ranked ATP: 42. Rublev is ranked ATP: 8.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Monfils could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rublev will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Monfils won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.8:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.74%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gael Monfils
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Gael Monfils - Borna Gojo	2:1 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Gael Monfils - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
07.04.25	Gael Monfils - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.25	Gael Monfils - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 W?LWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Jesper De Jong - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
09.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Zizou Bergs - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Gael Monfils	2:0
ATP US Open
31.08.23	Gael Monfils - Andrey Rublev	1:3
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.21	Andrey Rublev - Gael Monfils	2:0
ATP Doha
06.01.18	Gael Monfils - Andrey Rublev	2:0

Gael Monfils - Andrey Rublev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide