Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Gauthier Onclin		August Holmgren

	1	2
			Watch
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.68	2.44
	1.46	2.73	Watch
	1.7	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.72)	2.37 ↑ (2.03)

The best margin for this event is 0.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gauthier Onclin
59.5%

August Holmgren
40.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.1%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gauthier Onclin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gauthier Onclin's performance.

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and August Holmgren might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gauthier Onclin than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gauthier Onclin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that August Holmgren could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Gauthier Onclin - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Onclin will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Holmgren will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Onclin: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Onclin (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Holmgren (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Onclin is ranked ATP: 192. Holmgren is ranked ATP: 176.

Onclin has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Holmgren is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Onclin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Onclin could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

August Holmgren - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gauthier Onclin
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	James Duckworth - Gauthier Onclin	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.09.25	Gauthier Onclin - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Gauthier Onclin	0:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Gauthier Onclin	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Gauthier Onclin - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLW
- August Holmgren
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	August Holmgren - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.09.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	August Holmgren - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
19.08.25	August Holmgren - Zachary Svajda	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.08.25	August Holmgren - Yu Hsiou Hsu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLL

Gauthier Onclin - August Holmgren