Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday


	Giovanni Fonio		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.4	Watch
	2.46	1.49	Watch
	2.35	1.62
	2.22	1.65	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.51	1.49	Watch
	2.46	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (3.27)	1.5 ↑ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giovanni Fonio
37.4%

Alex Michelsen
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

71.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giovanni Fonio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Giovanni Fonio's performance.

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Michelsen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giovanni Fonio than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Giovanni Fonio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Giovanni Fonio - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fonio will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Michelsen will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonio: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fonio is ranked ATP: 372. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 38.

Fonio is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Michelsen is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games, wins - 2).

Michelsen could have an advantage in physical - more days for rest in the last days.

In this match, Michelsen is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giovanni Fonio
ATP Challenger
30.04.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Denis Yevseyev - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
28.04.25	Giovanni Fonio - Ivan Gakhov	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Lukas Pokorny - Giovanni Fonio	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Marko Topo - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWLW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWL

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