Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brasilia 2, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	Henrique Rocha		Thiago Monteiro

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.18	1.62	Watch
	2.27	1.56	Watch
	2.66	1.53
	2.4	1.51	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.32	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.84)	1.56 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henrique Rocha
40%

Thiago Monteiro
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henrique Rocha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Henrique Rocha's form might have worsened.

Thiago Monteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thiago Monteiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Henrique Rocha, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thiago Monteiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	0%	93.3%

Henrique Rocha - Thiago Monteiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Thiago Monteiro will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thiago Monteiro will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rocha is ranked ATP: 169. Monteiro is ranked ATP: 232.

Rocha is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Monteiro has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rocha may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Franco Agamenone	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
22.02.26	Daniel Vallejo - Henrique Rocha	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Orlando Luz - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW
- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Thiago Monteiro - Pedro Boscardin Dias	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Miguel Damas - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Dutra da Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
21.02.26	Daniel Vallejo - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL

Henrique Rocha - Thiago Monteiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide