Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Super Tennis


	Hubert Hurkacz		Roman Andres Burruchaga

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.46	3
	1.43	2.66	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.4	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.6)	2.74 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
65.8%

Roman Andres Burruchaga
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hubert Hurkacz's performance.

Roman Andres Burruchaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roman Andres Burruchaga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hubert Hurkacz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roman Andres Burruchaga than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roman Andres Burruchaga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Hubert Hurkacz - Roman Andres Burruchaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Burruchaga will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hurkacz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 63. Burruchaga is ranked ATP: 59.

Hurkacz is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Burruchaga has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Burruchaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hurkacz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.89%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Emilio Nava - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Zachary Svajda - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Jaime Faria - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLW
- Roman Andres Burruchaga
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Marcos Giron	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
ATP Houston
05.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Learner Tien - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLLW

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