Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday


	Jaime Faria		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	3.15	1.36	Watch
	3.31	1.37
	3.22	1.35	Watch
	3.1	1.36
	3.2	1.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.77)	1.37 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaime Faria
29.9%

Hubert Hurkacz
70.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaime Faria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaime Faria than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jaime Faria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Jaime Faria - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Users Predictions: Hubert Hurkacz will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Faria is ranked ATP: 136. Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 63.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Hurkacz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hurkacz is considered a favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.8%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaime Faria
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Jaime Faria - Lloyd Harris	Harris L. Retired ✺
20.04.26	Quentin Halys - Jaime Faria	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.04.26	Jaime Faria - Roman Safiullin	1:2 ✺
16.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Jaime Faria	Faria J. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Guy Den Ouden - Jaime Faria	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 ?WL?W
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Ethan Quinn - Hubert Hurkacz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWWL

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