Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Hubert Hurkacz		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.57	Watch
	2.47	1.55
	2.52	1.59
	2.51	1.53	Watch
	2.38	1.57
	2.45	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.94)	1.56 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
38.9%

Lorenzo Musetti
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

70.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hubert Hurkacz's performance.

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Musetti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hubert Hurkacz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Musetti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Musetti will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 58.6% – 97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 63. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Musetti could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hurkacz won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.39 are the expected chance of winning is 67.9%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Jaime Faria - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLWW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Arthur Fils - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Martin Landaluce - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Rafael Jodar	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
07.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3
ATP Rotterdam
09.02.22	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.21	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0
ATP Roma
10.05.21	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	Hurkacz H. retired

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