Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	Hugo Gaston		Sebastian Ofner

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.75	1.98	Watch
	1.77	1.94	Watch
	1.82	2.07
	1.74	1.97	Watch
	1.8	1.91
	1.74	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.7)	1.97 ↓ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
52.8%

Sebastian Ofner
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	0%	54.5%

Hugo Gaston - Sebastian Ofner Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Gaston will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Ofner will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ofner: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Ofner will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 96. Ofner is ranked ATP: 108.

Gaston is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ofner is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ofner may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gaston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.3%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Moise Kouame	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Daniil Glinka	Glinka D. retired ✺
28.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Ugo Blanchet - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WW?LW
- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Murphy Cassone	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Clement Chidekh - Sebastian Ofner	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.02.26	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	1:2
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:0
ATP Challenger
12.05.23	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:1
08.09.21	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	0:2
28.10.20	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:0

Hugo Gaston - Sebastian Ofner: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide