Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Hugo Gaston		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.3	3.2
	1.31	3.68
	1.24	3.73	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.3	3.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.45)	3.39 ↑ (2.55)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
72.3%

Keegan Smith
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hugo Gaston's performance.

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keegan Smith might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hugo Gaston that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keegan Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gaston will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Smith will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaston: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Gaston (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hugo Gaston will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 96. Smith is ranked ATP: 306.

In recent matches, Gaston has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Smith is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gaston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gaston is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.25%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Daniil Glinka	Glinka D. retired ✺
28.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Ugo Blanchet - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Mikhail Kukushkin - Hugo Gaston	Gaston H. walkover ✺
24.02.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 ?LW?W
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	August Holmgren - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Neil Oberleitner - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Keegan Smith - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Keegan Smith - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLW

Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide