Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Ignacio Buse		Rinky Hijikata

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.72	2.18
	1.7	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.18	Watch
	1.86	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.87)	2.09 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ignacio Buse
54.9%

Rinky Hijikata
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Rinky Hijikata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ignacio Buse that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rinky Hijikata than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rinky Hijikata could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Ignacio Buse - Rinky Hijikata Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Buse will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Hijikata will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Buse: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 3 - 50%). Hijikata (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Buse (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Hijikata (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Buse is ranked ATP: 63. Hijikata is ranked ATP: 117.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Hijikata may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 39% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ignacio Buse
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Ignacio Buse - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Joao Fonseca - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLLWW
- Rinky Hijikata
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Leandro Riedi - Rinky Hijikata	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
24.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Yibing Wu	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Alan Magadan	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
16.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLWL

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